MARKET RUNS WITH THE BULLS – SO DO PENNY STOCKS

By Ruma Dubey

We are currently in a situation, at least most of the retail investors, who can only watch the bull run and see quality stocks hitting new highs. Two factors deter our getting in – most of the good stocks, even mediocre stocks are at unaffordable prices – the underlying fear is that we might buy at this high and the stock price might slip, trapping us forever. And secondly, the high prices could mean lesser profits on the table. Thus there is now a pursuit for penny stocks.

This is how it always happens. When prices skyrocket, the usual suspects, the smallcap, penny stocks start showing a lot of momentum. Retail investors want to constantly buy into such stocks, hoping that one day it turns into an Infosys or L&T.

We have many investors/traders posting us queries on the website, asking for some penny stock ideas. The only question which comes to mind is “why?” This search for the elusive pot of gold at the end of the brilliant rainbow is what puts traders at risk. And this is a dangerous time to be on the hunt for penny stocks and it is actually the perfect time to stand back and look at where and what we are investing in. Wait for the dust to settle before you take a call on large cap stocks too!

The one omnipresent character of all traders buying and selling shares on the bourses is greed. Even if a trader, in a particular stock is in handsome profits, he continues to hold, hoping to make more. And then
there are the other traders, the high risk traders, who want to invest only in small cap or penny stocks and hope that one day it becomes a mid cap stock. But does that happen? Maybe we come across a few random cases; there are stories of more losses than gains, yet traders keep a selective memory and buy into penny stocks, only to get trapped. But for those who have been trapped in such stocks since a long time, such markets are a blessing as it gives them an opportunity to exit with the counters once again becoming liquid.

Penny stocks are characterized by scams, with management and manipulative brokers having one point agenda – to snarl susceptible traders. These stocks typically have volatile price variations. The most telling pointer is when a stock has a pitiable volume of trade but yet manages to hit a new high with even every 100 shares traded. Market cap is usually very small. Risk is very high, with dubious credentials of the management. Buying into such stocks is easy but try selling it when the price rises and you will know the true meaning of being trapped in a penny stock. Lack of liquidity and high volatility should be the big blaring warning signs. Delisting is a frequent phenomenon. Brokers go overboard recommending these stocks and SMSes are often used to sell these stocks. Despite all these facts, people constantly ask for advice on which penny stocks to buy.

Take a look at some of the stocks which have hit a new high today. Ahmedabad Steelcraft needs special mention – the stock has a market cap of Rs.6.53 crore, its net profit for FY16 was not even Rs.1 crore. It has consistently been hitting the upper circuits and today too the same story, with price frozen today at its 5% UC at Rs.15.95.

Lancer Container Lines. Have you ever heard of this company? It is into containers and packaging, as the name suggests. It has breaching the UC and hitting new highs every day; today being no different. But its market cap stands at Rs.42 crore  and its net profit for FY16 was not even Rs.1 crore. Yet, it commands a stock price of Rs.74?

Take a look at the list of scrips which have hit a new high today… it runs into 8 pages on the BSE and more than half of it comprises of such stocks which have no fundamentals but are making merry as the bulls run.

The list in endless and the queue of traders wanting to pick the next ‘Infosys in the making’ or the next ‘Sterlite in the making’ is growing. And that is worrisome. Mid cap stocks are still a better risk than small caps. And remember – rarely do penny stocks ever become even mid caps, forget becoming large caps.