EVENTS THAT WILL SHAPE 2015

By Ruma Dubey

2014 is gone and 2015 is in. All the partying is over, maybe the hangover still persists…..

For many, 31^st December is just the end of a month and the beginning of a new month. Yes, it means a change in the year but that’s something which has no real impact on our lives. The habits, traits, characters, routine which we had on 31^st are what you will have on 1^st Jan, 2^nd, 3^rd and so on. Thus spiritually or philosophically speaking (spirituality is the science of philosophy) this “new year” has no significance. But because we live and work in a material world, we need to follow a few rules and ways of the world; so in that context, 2015 is a new year and it brings forth hope in the mind that things will pan out much better than they did in 2014.  

As we step into 2015 with new optimism, there are few world events, which could have a bearing on the world around us; not directly but as a causation of living in a flat, globally connected world.  A quick look at the calendar of 2015. Mark these events….

More than looking at just within India, we are looking at major events across the globe as those have an equal if not bigger impact. As per the Chinese, 2015 is the year of the goat/sheep/ram.

• First things first. For us Indians, the year will begin with cricket frenzy beginning and then reaching a peak in Feb. It is scheduled to be jointly hosted by Australia and New Zealand from 14 February to 29 March 2015. India are the defending champions, having won the tournament in 2011. India v/s Pakistan match is scheduled for 15 February 2015; tickets were reportedly sold out within 12 minutes. On a more serious note, it is the month of the Budget too – Railway as well as Union. And yes, the Credit Policy will be held on 3^rd Feb.

• This will be the year when we will see US Fed Reserve hiking interest rates. The Fed’s first FOMC meet of 2015 is scheduled on January 27-28.  And the ECB is also expected to announce some sort of stimulus to perk up the EU. Anti-austerity drives are expected to gain more fervor. The ECB will meet on January 22 in Frankfurt, with the next one not falling until March 5.

• Russia will continue to dominate Europe. It is difficult to predict where the rubble and Ukraine will head but as of now, fingers point towards a Cold War.

• Crude oil is expected to make news like it did in 2014 and price is estimated to remain low. The big OPEC meet, (they meet twice a year) is scheduled for 5^th June.

• 2015 will also be a year some important trade deals. There is the all-important Climate Change Summit in Paris, scheduled for December. This is important because it could end up being a treaty making climate change agreement binding most countries, aiming to bring down global warming. Unlike the previous one held at Copenhagen, the design of the treaty is expected to be more sensible. 196 countries will meet to sign a new climate change agreement. But how likely is it that it will be meaningful and make a difference to climate action on the ground?

• The G20 Summit will be held in Turkey this time on 10^th November and the 41st G8 Summit 2015 will be held in Bavaria, Germany- to be held on June 7–8.

• There is the Transpacific Partnership Summit. This is a proposed regional regulatory and investment treaty. As of 2014 twelve countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region have participated in negotiations on the TPP.

• The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a proposed free trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the USA. Proponents say the agreement would result in multilateral economic growth, while critics say it would increase corporate power and make it more difficult for governments to regulate markets for public benefit.

• The big event for WTO in 2015 will be the Doha Round as all eyes will be on this summit whether this time around it will be able to complete this summit logically, which people have written off. Trade liberalisation is back on the table for faster economic growth and more jobs – world leaders might rush in to make deals though stumbling blocks could be the political gridlock in Washington, EC and resistance from India.

• 2015 will also see some elections around the world. UK will go for General Elections in 2015. The timeline suggests that a mandate dissolution of the present 55th Parliament will be on 30 March 2015 and the election will be held on 7 May 2015, unless the House of Commons votes for an earlier date.

• Spain will also go to the polls this year and the only dates we know as of now is that it will be held on or before Sunday, 20 December 2015. The ruling People's Party, led by PM Mariano Rajoy, will seek re-election for a second term in office. General elections are also scheduled during the year in Turkey and Argentina.