RIL Q3 FY15 Estimates
By S.P. Tulsian
Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) will declare its Q3 FY15 (quarter ended 31st December, 2014) results on Friday 16th January, 2015. Our estimates, on consolidated basis, are as under:
(Rs./Crore)
| Particulars | Q3 ending 31-12-14 | Q2 ending 30-09-14 |
| Segment Revenue |
|
|
| 21,860 | 26,651 |
| 84,950 | 1,03,590 |
| 2,770 | 3,002 |
| 4,330 | 4,167 |
| 2,330 | 2,455 |
| Gross Turnover | 1,16,240 | 1,39,865 |
| Less: Inter Segment | 22,240 | 26,469 |
|
| 94,000 | 1,13,396 |
| Less: Excise Duty | 3,030 | 3,599 |
| Net Turnover | 90,970 | 1,09,797 |
|
|
|
|
| EBIT Margins |
|
|
| 1. Petrochem (8.83%) | 1,930 | 2,361 |
| 2. Refinery (3.61%) | 3,070 | 3,844 |
| 3. Oil & Gas (26.71%) | 740 | 818 |
| 4. Organised Retail (2.42%) | 105 | 99 |
| 5. Others | 260 | 272 |
| PBIT | 6,105 | 7,394 |
| Less: Interest Expenses | -1,115 | -997 |
| Add: Interest Income | 1,240 | 1,190 |
| Less: Other Unallocated Income | 230 | 271 |
| PBT | 6,460 | 7,858 |
| Less: Provision for Tax @20.70% | -1,335 | -1,628 |
| Less: Deferred Tax | -220 | -254 |
| Profit After Tax | 4,905 | 5,976 |
| EPS | 15.17 | 20.30 |
*Figures in brackets indicates % margin for Q3FY15.
Notes:
- GRM for Q3 is seen at $ 6.80 per barrel, due to high inventory losses seen getting factored in.
- Brent Crude ruled at $94 per barrel on 01-10-2014 and at $57 per barrel on 31-12-2014, recording a steep fall of 40% in Q3. Average is seen at $76 per barrel.
- Company had highest inventory of Rs. 62,000 crores, as at 30-09-2014, carrying huge risk of losses on inventory to be booked in Q3. Considering First In First Out (FIFO) method of inventory valuation, this can give losses of over Rs.4,200 crores in Q3, as about two third of this inventory is with respect to Refinery and Petchem segment, net off forward sale contract coupled with forex gain. However, it is unlikely to get it fully booked in this quarter, as if it is done so, Q3 results will present a scary picture.
- Singapore benchmark was seen at $ 4 for Q3, which was at $ 4.8 in Q2 and $ 5.8 in Q1 of FY15.
- Weak gasoline and gasoil cracks prevailed in Q3 as well. Arab light heavy differential seen at an average of $3 in Q3, while Brent Dubai Crude differential was seen below $ 0.50 per barrel.
- Debt as at 31-12-2014 is estimated at Rs. 1,54,000 crores while cash and cash equivalents are seen at Rs. 86,000 crores, with net debt seen at Rs. 68,000 crores, as at 31-12-2014.
- EPS of FY15 is likely to be at Rs. 70.50.