THE MARKETS SOAR TO NEW HIGHS

By Ruma Dubey

The moods are extremely upbeat on the bourses. There is a spring to the feet, an aroma in the air, a smile on the face. Call it the pre-arrival syndrome of Lord Ganesha next week or a sense of overall festivity and optimism but the markets are surely celebrating.

Today, the BSE 500 index which makes up for 93% of the total market cap of BSE, covering all 20 major industries in the economy scaled a record high, hitting an all-time high at 11,773 points. The BSE mid-cap was also at a record high at 13,181 points. Overall, the BSE Sensex hit a new 52-week high. Of the total 2927 shares traded today on the BSE, 1625 shares rose, which is over 55% of the total shares.

In the BSE 500 the list of stocks hitting new life time highs was long – Lal Path labs, Jubilant Life, V Guard, GMDC, GE Shipping, India Cement, Ambuja Cement, TVS Motors, SML Isuzu, Trident, MOIL, Manappurram Finance, Edelweiss Financial, Indian Bank, TD Power Systems, eClerx Services and so many more stocks were all on a high.

There are quite a few reasons for this upbeat mood. First and foremost there is a growing consensus that the US Federal Reserve will not hike the interest rates before December; so the fear factor which had gripped everyone that we could a rate hike in this coming month seems to have receded into the background.

Secondly, almost all technical analysts are for one unanimous in their call – there is a major upward rally ahead. They all confer that the charts show a surge though none could tell us the most crucial answer to the question – how long will this rally last?

Thirdly, the festive season has started and this means buying has started. The 7^th Pay Commission money will now come into circulation, boosting demand and thus industry. Cars usually have the best time of the year now, which explains why auto companies were in the focus today. Ditto for paint companies too as people tend to paint their homes during this season. Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motors and Tata Motors hit a new 52-week high today. Monsoon season has been very good till now and that too has raised a sense of optimism as a good rainfall, means a good harvest and a good harvest means increase in rural buying. Thus on purely fundamental grounds too, reasons are justified for an upsurge.

Strangely, all these reasons existed even last week but today and yesterday, traders probably just decided to look at things positively. It is purely sentiments and currently the sentiments are very good.

How long will this last? The markets mood is compared to that of a woman, unpredictable. So now, its good, enjoy it. There is really no reason as of now for the markets to fall but knowing the market and the analysts, we will come up with reasons to justify a fall too.

It’s a game of sentiments. So have a good time as long as the good time lasts!