VOTES AND NOTES KEEP THE MARKET HAPPY!

By Ruma Dubey

It will take a long, long time for one to digest that Donald Trump is the President Elect and come January’17, he will be President of the largest economy of the world. Once again, like always, all polls went wrong and no one had predicted this kind of victory.

The win of Trump more than anything else does put up a skewed picture of Americans – they are now representing a society which is sexist and racist. Reams and reams of paper and internet space will now be cluttered with what Trump will do and through all these, the underlying message which comes across in genuine uncertainty. Throughout the campaign he has consistently taken inconsistent stands on same issues but at different times. This in many ways means that for one single problem, he himself has created various options that he can choose from.

The big worry with Trump in the lead is that he has time and again shown that he is anti-trade and might have various ‘closed’ ideas about globalization. Apart from the worry that it could mean the beginning of some serious trade war with China’ Trump has also voiced that he does not want the IT jobs to go to India. There is concern that this could most certainly affect business confidence in the short term. But what many are looking are forward to are tax cuts and there is hope that he could give a boost to infra spending, which in turn could give the much needed impetus to the growth of US economy. Now this is one thing – infra spending, especially for USA, given its low or near zero interest rate.

The Indian markets are proving to be truly resilient. It has ‘managed’ to put it behind, the crack down on black/counterfeit 500 and 1000 rupees and also the victory of Trump. Even yesterday, it was not a crash, it was another day of a falling market; there was more panic on the streets around ATMs and banks rather than Dalal Street.

Today, the Indian markets seem to have given a thumbs up to Trump. In fact stocks and commodities, both have risen today on hopes that he will give more fiscal stimulus, lower corporate taxes and usher in higher interest rates. Gold, crude oil as well as copper, all three are in the green. A lot of buying was seen in local infra companies in USA, not here in India. There, even bank stocks are on the rise that Trump will be good for them as will loosen regulations.

In India, today look at the top gainers on the BSE at the end of trading day. Bank stocks, PSU banks. Four PSU banks lead the pack – Indian Bank, Bank of India, Dena Bank and PNB. This had got nothing to do with Trump ; it was due to the demonetization which has led to hopes that our interest rates will now be reduced; maybe a balm to soothe the frayed nerves.

For now the moods are upbeat and hopes have once again sprung of good tidings. Good hope is always a good thing to have, so lets enjoy this current moment.