Shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd. (VIL) rose over 6% to Rs.10.10, hitting an intraday high of Rs.10.11, after the telecom operator reported a narrower loss and improved operating metrics for the September quarter (Q2FY26). The stock, with a VWAP of Rs.9.91 and a market capitalisation of Rs.1.09 lakh crore, extended last week’s rally driven by optimism over its financial restructuring and government relief prospects.

Vodafone Idea’s consolidated net loss stood at Rs.5,524 crore, narrowing from Rs.7,176 crore in the same quarter last year — its lowest loss in 19 quarters, aided by stronger revenue and subscriber upgrades. Revenue rose 2.4% year-on-year to Rs.11,195 crore, while EBITDA came in at Rs.4,685 crore, with EBITDA margin stable at 42%. On a cash basis, EBITDA stood at Rs.2,246 crore versus Rs.2,324 crore a year ago. Capex for Q2 stood at Rs.1,750 crore, taking the first-half total to Rs.4,200 crore.

Operational performance continued to improve, with ARPU rising 8.7% YoY to Rs.180, driven by customer upgrades and tariff revisions. The company’s subscriber base stood at 19.67 crore, with 4G/5G subscribers at 12.78 crore, up from 12.59 crore a year earlier. Vodafone Idea’s 4G coverage has expanded to 84% of India’s population, compared to 77% in March 2024, aided by the addition of 1,500 new towers during the quarter. The company launched 5G services in March 2025 and has since expanded to 29 cities across 17 priority circles, contributing to 99% of total revenue.

On the balance sheet front, debt from banks stood at Rs.1,530 crore, while cash and bank balances were at Rs.3,080 crore as of September 30, 2025. The company continues to carry total liabilities of about Rs.1.95 lakh crore, including Rs.76,000 crore in AGR dues and Rs.1.19 lakh crore in spectrum obligations.

Market buzz indicates the Income Tax Department’s withdrawal of its Rs.8,500 crore transfer pricing case and the possibility of favourable AGR settlement terms, including potential interest waiver and long-tenure repayment, could materially ease its financial strain.

Speculation around a potential $6 billion (Rs.50,000 crore) investment by US-based private equity firm TGH has further lifted sentiment, though the company has not confirmed details, saying it “continues to explore various options.”

Mr.SP Tulsian is of the view that the Govt. may completely waive the interest, and also principal may be fixed for repayment over 20 years annual instalment, with payment to be made by the company to DoT by last week of March 26.

Mr.Tulsian said that the company may come out with rights issue to mobilise fund for payment of the same, which will make Govt. stake fall below 49%, and then rise again to 49% in April month, at a higher valuation of Rs.12 per share, in conversion of part dues of DoT.

Mr.Tulsian firmly believes that we could see more corporate action in coming months like a probable change of promoter, including Government playing big role in either increasing their stake to 74% or seen bringing in foreign promoter, which can make the share to rise to Rs.20 in the next 6-8 months.