ELECTIONS - THE FRENCH WAY

By Ruma Dubey

22nd April 2012. The first round of the 2012 French presidential election took place and a second round run-off is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2012.

In Round 1, there were five candidates - Francois Hollande, Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon and Francois Bayrou. The result –

Francois Hollande - 28.56%

Nicolas Sarkozy - 27.07%

Le Pen - 18.12%

Jean-Luc Melenchon - 11%

Francois Bayrou - 9.1%

Candidates with the least votes - Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon and Francois Bayrou were eliminated, leaving only two contenders now for the Round 2.  It is the first time a French president running for re-election has failed to win the first round since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958. And this entire process of French elections, very different from ours in many ways, is extremely interesting to say the least.

This process of going from Round 1 to Round 2 is known as a ‘run-off’. This is how it is conducted very time. So under the run-off, there is elimination till they get one clear winner with a majority.

In this process, the voter puts an ‘X’ in front of his chosen candidate. For absolute majority, one candidate needs to have around 45-50% of the votes. When that does not happen, in Round 1, two candidates with majority proceed to Round 2 while the rest are eliminated. So in Round 2, there will be just two candidates and instead of the votes going all over the place and coming up with a hotch potch, khichadi kind of Govt, the winner will be a single candidate. Thus all compulsions of a coalition Govt are eliminated. This kind of voting system has its pluses and minuses like all systems but at the moment, in India, where coalition is running India off track and regional parties are calling the shots, this method of absolute majority, dream in India, seems very appealing. Well, in a country like India, were there are so many parties and the country being so vast and populous, having two rounds of elections is an impossibility, an expense which simply cannot be borne.

In Europe, the French elections have immense significance and for the rest of the world too. The most shocking part of the elections was the fact that every fifth person in France has voted for the far right candidate, Marine Le Pen. Like we have the “Left’ here, this far right party is extreme and is usually seen supporting ‘elitist’ policies, which includes stringent anti-immigrant laws and viewed as xenophobes.  Marine Le had advocated "national preference" for French citizens over foreign residents when it came to selection for jobs and social services. She was also for withdrawing from the euro and the EU. She wanted to reduce legal immigration by 95%. Her ideas are anti-global and development and though she has been eliminated, it nevertheless comes as a shock to know that one in every fifth person agreed with her viewpoint.

This also indicates that the existing two candidates will have to pay heed for this preference and during the campaign for the Round 2, will have to sing some quiet tune which is far right. The big question is whether Mr. Sarkozy will be able to lure the 18.0% of voters who chose Marine Le Pen. The Polls have indicated that people who voted for Marine might abstain from voting in Round 2 rather than vote for either of the two.

If Mr.Sarkozy is re-elected, it will all be hunky dory as long as cozying with Germany goes but if M.Hollande gets elected, he is all for shrugging off all austerity measures and wants the French to spend so that it can give impetus to growth. So the fragile balance with Germany could get toppled, causing further uncertainty in the EU. There are serious questions now being raised on this entire ‘austerity’ plan as it did not help Spain and Portugal. Mr.Sarkozy is also seen to be slowly veering towards increasing domestic spends to invigorate growth.