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A VERY BALANCED POLICY

By Ruma Dubey about 4 days ago
Persistent high inflation and a shift in global policy has led to this hike, while continuing to withdraw the accommodative stance. This is the fourth straight rate hike since May, taking the total rate hike to 190 bps. But the stubborn inflation, like a wild lion trying to be controlled by the ring master, continues to cock a snook, remaining elevated beyond the target ceiling.

FED HIKES AGAIN - WILL IT TAME PRICES?

By Ruma Dubey about 12 days ago
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Already named as a “supersized” rate hike, the Fed rate hike of 75 bps to 3 – 3.25%, a rate last seen in 2008, was very much in line with expectations. There was collective sigh of relief almost all across the world. Along with the massive rate increases, Fed officials signalled the intention of continuing to hike until the funds level hits a “terminal rate,” or end point of 4.6% in 2023.

IIP DOWN, CPI UP

By Ruma Dubey about 21 days ago
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CPI for August came in at 7% v/s 6.71% in July, which was widely expected; no shocks or surprises here. But IIP for July came in much lower than expected at 2.4% v/s 12.7% in June. Sectors which showed a rise were manufacturing, electricity, primary goods, capital goods, intermediate, infra and construction.

INFLATION COMING DOWN, OH SOOO SLOWLY!!!

By Ruma Dubey about 2 months ago
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If inflation is coming down, even if slowly, does it mean that we are looking at inflation climbing down to comfortable levels soon? That would be too early to predict; the truth is that inflation is not going to fall down to 4% any time soon; we are probably looking at FY24 and ahead for that elusive 4%.

RBI GOES TONGS & HAMMER BEHIND INFLATION

By Ruma Dubey about 2 months ago
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A few days ago, the US Fed hiked rates by an aggressive 75 bps and yesterday the Bank of England raised rates by 50 bps. And that pretty much indicated the RBI’s decision today – aggressive and decisive.RBI hiked the rate by, as expected, a 50 bps with immediate effect; aggressive but much needed to tame the wild inflation. RBI also decided to focus on withdrawal of accommodation

AB TERA KYA HOGA INDIA?

By Ruma Dubey about 2 months ago
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A harbinger of things to come here too at the 5th Aug RBI meet? The dialogue, "Ab tera kya hoga kaaliya" resonates in the same Gabbar voice! That’s the thought which came to mind when the Fed tonight hiked rates steeply by an aggressive 75 bps; from near zero in March, the rates now stand in the range of 2.25 to 2.50%

MEHANGAYEE MAAR GAYEE……

By Ruma Dubey about 3 months ago
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Inflation is clearly a poisonous snake in the paradise but even before the IIP and CPI came in today, it was taken for granted that pain will be there in the near term but the long term story is slowly but surely improving. We say this based on three facts.

AGGRESSIVE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION!

By Ruma Dubey about 4 months ago
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The US Fed did what was widely expected – the most aggressive rate hike in 28 years. A 75 bps rate hike, the largest interest rate increase since 1994. That’s not all – the Fed clearly signaled that it would continue to lift rates this year at the most rapid pace. This now puts the Fed’s benchmark rate to a range between 1.5% to 1.75%.

RBI – WAR AGAINST INFLATION

By Ruma Dubey about 4 months ago
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Market moved into the positive – this is more like a relief rally, where the market heaved a sigh of relief that this is over and done with. Though on the ground, the rising crude price, the falling rupee and the oncoming US Fed meet next week will keep the markets volatile. Remember, this reaction today could be a traders response to the market, investors response could come much later.

TECHNICALLY, IN RECESSION?

By Ruma Dubey about 4 months ago
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This was very much on expected lines. India’s GDP for Q4FY22 came in at 4.1% v/s 5.4% (QoQ) and v/s 1.6% (YoY). GDP for FY22 was at 8.7% v/s (-)6.6% (YoY) but much below the 8.9% projected by the Statistics Ministry in Feb. This is better than 7.3% for FY21. When GDP contracts for two consecutive quarters, technically, the country is in recession.

CPI – SHOCKER OF A NUMBER

By Ruma Dubey about 5 months ago
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For the man on the street, life is tough, what with cost of living rising beyond his ability to earn. With interest rates also going up, the EMI burden for the middle class is only going to increase. Ukraine and Russia are at war but for most of us Indians, its been war times since 2020 - first against Covid and now prices.

MARKET SULKS AS RBI GOES ALL-OUT!

By Ruma Dubey about 5 months ago
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This is a very proactive and practical but extremely significant move made by the RBI. If it had sat on the rates even now, while staying worried only about consumption and growth, the impact would have been disastrous. The rate hike is the perfect move and it does warn us all about the storm raging ahead as far as inflation in concerned.

RBI – ASSUMES ROLE OF A LIGHTHOUSE AS STORM RAGES

By Ruma Dubey about 6 months ago
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When the entire globe is in a turmoil, its best to wait out the storm and allow things to settle before making major decisions – that’s how RBI’s MPC has viewed its take on interest rate decision. Hoping that the war troubles will end soon and crude will soon start retracting, while keeping an eye on inflation, which RBI thinks is not a big cause for worry, the MPC unanimously voted to maintain a status quo.

HUM SAB MEIN HAIN 'HERO?'

By Ruma Dubey about 6 months ago
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News headlines all over the country, almost all over, carried the news about the IT raid at Hero Moto and how the team recovered a racket of bogus expenses to the tune of Rs.1000 crore. Rs.1000 crore bogus expenses? That’s unthinkable for 99% of us Indians; for many, putting in a voucher for Rs.1000 and then waiting for it to get cleared in itself is a big deal.

RATE CYCLE REVERSED TO "HIKES" TRAIL

By Ruma Dubey about 7 months ago
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The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled six more such hikes this year. The Fed in its statement, said, inflation has been high due to broader price pressures and added that the war in Ukraine and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation.

MARKET VOLATILITY - LEAVING EVERYONE GIDDY

By Ruma Dubey about 7 months ago
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Based on over three decades of market ups and downs, living through the Gulf war, the WTC, Iraq, Obama,Osama, Trump and so many more geopolitical crisis, what can be said with 100% conviction is that in the end, everything does get alright – sab theek ho jayega is indeed true. When crisis happens, the markets are volatile and we have always found peace when we stay away at that time, till things settle down.

CRUDE – OUR POCKETS AND ECONOMY TO GET CHEWED!

By Ruma Dubey about 7 months ago
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Two years ago, we were looking at crude oil prices at $20/barrel and oil producing countries were crying barrels of tears. Today, they are a mighty happy lot what with crude nearing the three digit, $100/barrel mark. There is talk of $115, $114 and more such numbers doing the rounds. No one at this point of time is taking a call on the Sensex or the Nifty as all seem to have become busy plotting crude oil and the rupee’s trajectory.

UKRAINE CRISIS – STOCK UP!

By Ruma Dubey about 8 months ago
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So, even though there are war clouds on the horizon, the mood among the retail investors is optimistic – they are looking at the current situation as a blip and expect that in the end, like always, sab theek ho jayega. The long-term story is intact so they are not worried about the short term – its being looked upon more as an opportunity.

RBI STUNS WITH STATUS QUO

By Ruma Dubey about 8 months ago
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That’s what almost everyone felt today; it was almost a foregone conclusion that RBI would hike rates by at least 25 bps. But RBI today stayed put on the rates; it’s a status quo! And RBI also said that it has decided to stay the course on its accommodative stance "as long as necessary.”

BUDGET FY23 – HARNESSING THE ANIMAL POWER OF PVT SECTOR!

By Ruma Dubey about 8 months ago
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The Budget began as usual, almost like a tradition, with the FM telling us about the achievements made in the fiscal though this time around, poetry was sadly missing though there was a quoted from the Mahabharata. Thankfully, despite so many important states going into election, it did not have giveaways and sops. It stayed on course and one can even call it ‘non-populistic.’ It’s a bold and pragmatic budget.