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IIP GROWS BY 134%!! WHAAAT!!!

By Ruma Dubey about 2 days ago
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And that’s how we need to look at the IIP data of today. Last April, India had the most severe lockdown on earth; thus the low base effect makes the IIP for April’21 look almost silly – the economy YoY grew by a huge 134.4% and maybe this is how the picture will look – exaggerated, also in May and June too.

MEME STOCKS – FUNNY OR REAL?

By Ruma Dubey about 4 days ago
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And then there are some stocks which are not too bad on the fundamental front, are doing relatively well as far as earnings go yet the pricing of the stock just does not justify the valuation. Praj Industries, Artemis Medicare, Aditya Vision, BCL Industries, Bright Brothers, Deepak Spinners, Craftsman Automation, Ease My Trip, Dhanvarsha Finvest and the list goes on.

LIFE CHANGES FOREVER….

By Ruma Dubey about 5 days ago
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There are many things which this pandemic has taught and is teaching us every day. Some habits or ways-of-life have changed forever. When the pandemic started last year, everyone was very enthusiastic as they posted pictures of cooking, cleaning and just spending time with family. 1.5 years into it, such pictures have all but disappeared and no one talks about family time any more.

MUSK - EMPEROR OF TWEETS!

By Ruma Dubey about 6 days ago
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The Bitcoin market is murky and frothy and seems to be running on the whims and fancies of one individual – Elon Musk. If he puts up a sad emoji, the bitcoin loses some 20% and if he puts up a happy one, the market rises 20%. So, the entire bitcoin ecosystem seems to be now running on the back of one person’s emotions alone. How is that in itself good?

VERY BALANCED AND CALIBRATED POLICY

By Ruma Dubey about 9 days ago
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It gave everything possible – maintained status quo, GSAP 2.0, extending support to the most distressed and managing forex in the best possible way. What needs to be done is coax people to borrow – really improving credit growth has become a priority. But then unless consumption demand does not pick up, credit growth will not happen

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM RBI?

By Ruma Dubey about 10 days ago
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And in the current scenario, it makes perfect economic sense too to sit tight. RBI has made it amply clear that its focus will be on growth and only growth as it feels that the monster of inflation is pretty much penciled in. Thus going by the Manufacturing PMI for May, which slid to a 10-month low and the Services PMI - contracted for the first time in 8-months, growth will pretty much dominate the tone of the policy tomorrow.

WHO IS SPENDING AFTER SECOND WAVE?

By Ruma Dubey about 11 days ago
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And this is not just Amit’s story; millions of Indians are currently on a cost-cutting mode. “Cash in King” is the anthem and many have really tightened their purse strings. That brings us to the pertinent question – will people start spending once again when the lock down lifts and things open up?

JUNE – HALF YEAR GONE OR HALF YEAR LEFT?

By Ruma Dubey about 12 days ago
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June holds all the promise of a Salman Khan movie though let’s hope its not a ‘Radhe’ which we get dumped with. This is going to be an action packed 15-days. There is so much macro data coming in that we will be reeling, number crunching; really, how many numbers does one small brain keep track of - the GDP, fiscal deficit, IIP, CPI, not to mention the Sensex, Nifty and stock prices and over and above all these, the corona numbers too!

Q4FY21 GDP - GROWTH BETTER THAN CONTRACTION

By Ruma Dubey about 13 days ago
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The GDP for Q4FY21 came in at 1.6% v/s 3% (YoY) and v/s 0.4% (QoQ). And the FY21 GDP shrunk to (-)7.3% v/s growth of 4% in FY20. This was mainly driven by the manufacturing growing 6.9% and construction sector over 14% and that too by the private sector.

MARKETS – CRASH OR NEW HIGH?

By Ruma Dubey about 16 days ago
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Is the market going to crash? Or is it going to hit 53,000? These are two extremes of the same spectrum but that’s the biggest question is everyone’s mind. The RBI too voiced its concern saying that the rising stock market amid GDP contraction poses a risk of a bubble. Are we in a bubble currently and is it growing so big that when it bursts, it will drown us all?

IPOs FOR INSTITUTIONS ONLY???

By Ruma Dubey about 17 days ago
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And what SEBI is looking at is something like a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) but QIP is usually of a listed company and this proposal is for companies to be listed. Like QIPs, there might be rules – presence of at least 2 institutions if the issue size if less than Rs.250 and 5 if more than Rs.250 crore – no single institution is allowed to corner more than 50% of the issue.

RISING SENSEX - BUYING TO ‘FEEL GOOD’?

By Ruma Dubey about 18 days ago
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Shoptimism. That’s the one word to describe the stock exchanges rise despite the pandemic. This is buying because you have the money, time and want to “feel good” amidst all this doom and gloom around. Shopping has and will always be the best therapy and currently, looks like everyone who has disposable income has taken to it. Everyone wants a piece of this pie, irrespective of their financial status.

EXIDE & AMARA - NEED TO POWER UP!

By Ruma Dubey about 19 days ago
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Well, the current battery sector in India is a duopoly – there are only two players – Exide Industries which is the market leader and Amara Raja. Both make lead-based batteries for vehicles as well as for industrial use – like the generator/USP used by almost every single industry.

JSPL – JAAGO SHAREHOLDER, JAAGO!!

By Ruma Dubey about 20 days ago
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It is good to see shareholders showing their might, especially against mighty companies, who sometimes fool themselves into thinking that they are invincible, beyond everyone’s reach. Such ‘vigilant’ shareholdership’ should grow, taking on the role of a watchdog. Today, Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (JSPL) was to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) but that has now been postponed and the new date is yet to be announced.

PURSUIT OF ENDURING HAPPINESS

By Ruma Dubey about 23 days ago
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Nowadays with work-from-home being the way of life, weekend as such does not hold any meaning. Yes, it probably means lesser Zoom calls and certainly no markets to track. And that means, we can use this time to sometimes look at other aspects of life. Like the market, we all look for escapism from the harsh reality surrounding us and look around for stories which will inspire us.

What’s Next for Vedanta Ltd., our Conviction Buy at 95 in Nov. 2020 ?

By SP Tulsian about 25 days ago
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Today, six months later the stock is up 200% while the Nifty is up 17% in the same period.

THE TRUE WORTH OF GOLD

By Ruma Dubey about 26 days ago
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It is only now that we understand this perseverance to buy gold; we fully understand why gold has got so much significance in our Indian households. Always prepared for shortages, famines, floods and maybe our ancestors for pandemics, gold is the true fall back for millions of Indians. With unemployment raging, loss of income pushing many into poverty and risks going up, gold loan is once again becoming the most preferred avenue.

WHAT’S YOUR EMOTION?

By Ruma Dubey about 27 days ago
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These two represent the two animals – bull and bear; when its fear, the bear stomps on the trading floors and when greed rules, the bulls cause a rampage. For investors, who are led only by long term returns, the guiding sentiment for this highly evolved or even liberated species is patience. Investors need to be immune to fear and greed, while traders have nothing to do with patience.

IIP AND CPI – STANDS IRRELEVANT

By Ruma Dubey about 1 month ago
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If and only if we are able to contain the disruption in May will we be able to see a sustainable industrial growth ahead. But that does not seem likely. With Covid having crept into rural India, we are sure to see more pain than the growth numbers like March. If the lockdown situation continues, which seems to be likely with ICMR saying that affected states need to look at 6-8 weeks more of lockdown, going ahead

CAUTION - OPERATORS AT WORK

By Ruma Dubey about 1 month ago
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What we have seen time and again is that when you start getting random “tips” from “market friends” and “hot stocks” get forwarded on Whatsapp (earlier it was SMS), its most certainly a time to get extremely cautious. Such tips have always been deadly. Like recently, one stock which has been doing the rounds vigorously is of RattanIndia Power. There were major forwards from many...