FROM MR.HU TO MR.XI - ANOTHER CHAPTER FROM 2013 TO 2023

By Ruma Dubey

After the entire hullabaloo over the USA President elections, in direct contrast, China, will very quietly, anoint its new President for the next ten years.  For the first time yesterday, the existing President of China, Hu Jintao, officially confirmed that Vice-President, Xi Jinping will become the new President from March 2013. It was also revealed that the 18th Party Congress, which everyone knew was to begin today, was to last for seven days. China wants to send a strong message to its 1.3 billion population – there was a smooth handover to a new leader and the Party was very much united.  And a message to the world, following news emerging on corruption, especially surrounding Bo Xia - there would be no chaos in China and all is being handled like a well-oiled machine.

The meeting is happening at the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square. 2268 delegates are attending and the doors will remains closed for seven days, to reopen next Thursday. Post that, some 200 members of the Central Committee whom it has elected will meet to choose the new band of leaders. And it is only then that Xi will reveal the new team to the people of China and the world. The team of the President, known as the Politburo Standing Committee will have seven members. The identity of the these key leaders remains shrouded in mystery.

There was so much mystery around this meeting it that foreign journalists covering this event were left wondering about where and when it would happen and for how long? They were left looking out for clues like large floral arrangements or beefed up security to get some hint. The Chinese Govt on its part, placed dozens of activists under house arrest, forcibly removed individuals from Beijing and closed down the offices of community groups in attempts to suppress peaceful dissent. Beijing taxi drivers were told to take off window handles from backseats to ensure no one hurls anything. In fact taxi drivers were asked to be on the lookout for passengers bearing balloons or ping pong balls that could contain subversive political messages. Most bizarre is that selling of ‘potentially dangerous’ items like vegetable knives have been banned till the end of the meeting.

This comes as no surprise as almost everything in China is always shrouded in mystery. Decisions are made and just conveyed to the people, who have no option but to accept. They have always lived like this; it is the communist or should we say, authoritarian way of running a Govt. This strikes us, the largest democracy in the world as very odd and unacceptable, but that is the big difference in the way of life between India and China. In China, protests are quelled immediately with force and no such ‘negative’ news is ever allowed to be published. There is major censorship on freedom of speech and expression. The Chinese are literally ruling the world but the leaders do not want the people of China to neither know much about their reforms nor about their high talks with foreign leaders.

Xi has a big task cut out for him. The current President, Mr.Hu took China on a fast spree of economic growth; there are more wealthy Chinese today than ever before. But he only paid attention to growing fast and after 10 years of running, the stamina is waning and exhaustion seems to have set in. The economy has raced ahead, leaving majority of the Chinese behind and the biggest problem it faces today, like India, is that of increasing income inequalities – the gap between the rich and poor is huge. Corruption is also becoming a major issue and people have become bolder, rather have thrown fear to the wind, with frustrations leading to many protests. Today China has more rebels out in the open than ever before, and majority of the protests have been about land. Many corrupt officials have seized villagers' property, sold it to developers and then failed to pay the villagers. Sounds familiar?

When we elect a party to power, we at least know what ideologies and values they stand for and broadly, what to expect. Politicians go door-to-door and explain their plans. In China, the elite few elect a new leader and that’s that! Nothing is known and one has to only speculate about the new party’s policies and ideologies.

So we in India, like the rest of the world can only wonder about how the relationship would be after Mr.Xi takes over. He is stated to have visited India way back in 1980 but skipped the visit when Mr.Hu had come but at the same time, he had visited 50 other countries as a run-up to his Presidency. Former external affairs minister, Mr.S M Krishna, despite many visits to China, never got to meet Mr.Xi. Thus one is left wondering whether he will give India the due importance it deserves in the region or will he, like his predecessor, Mr.Hu, get more aligned with Pakistan? Mr.Xi is stated to be the man behind the idea of a separate Kashmir and started the practice of issuing stapled visa to people from Kashmir and even Arunachal Pradesh. Geopolitics apart, overall, on the economic front, Xi is expected to maintain continuity of Mr.Hu and at least on that front, India does not expect any impact.

2013 will be very interesting, with a re-elected and invigorated Obama and a new President of China taking charge.