MODI WIN – ALL DOORS ARE NOW OPEN, OPPORTUNITIES GALORE!

By Ruma Dubey

We most certainly are in a bull run! And what a run!

The BJP’s or should we rather say, Modi’s thumping win in Uttar Pradesh has set the adrenalin and the indices soaring.

This is really HUGE as it shows that demonetization or not, Modi magic remained intact and people in UP booted out BSP and SP for a complete change. This win also gives Modi an almost complete mandate in India; he rules! What it also does is, it puts the onus now completely on the BJP to work on economic reforms and do all that it had all along promised to do.

If Rajya Sabha was the roadblock where all Bills ultimately came and got stuck, the UP win changes all the numbers. Some 10 seats of Rajya Sabha from UP go to polls on 2018 and this win now gives BJP a complete legup. Of these 10 seats – 10 are from SP, two from BSP, one from Congress and one from BJP. Two seats – one each in Uttarakhand and Goa will also go to polls. Thus if this Assembly Elections are any indicator, BJP could have a clean sweep in the Rajya Sabha too, going on to make it the single largest party in the Upper House. This in turn means that reforms which were getting stuck could see a smooth get through.

Also this year, a new President will get elected. Pranab Mukherjee’s tenure ends on 25^th July 2017 and the Govt has already set up a Presidential Election cell. The BJP is currently in a strong position to elect a candidate of its choice. A vote of 75,000 is required to elect a nominee and BJP, post the UP win has 325 MLAs and each one has a vote value of 208. This takes the tally to over 67,000 and if we take into account Manipur and Uttarakhand too, clearly, Modi will decide who the next President of India becomes.

Thus with a mandate to elect the President and control both the Houses, BJP has it all. It now depends on what and how fast the BJP will work to usher in economic reforms. Modi has shown that if played on the right sentiments, something as big and bold as demonetization can be worked out in its favor; what’s to stop him from bringing forth such more bold reforms.

At the moment BJP is in a very sweet spot – it has almost no Opposition and if there is, they have no voice. The Congress is looking like a scarecrow with no limbs and heads – remains just a figurehead. It is decimated completely and unless it too overhauls itself completely, works on shrugging off the Gandhi overhang; it could be beaten out of existence. What today remains of this national party is a hazy shadow of what it was with a serious crisis of leadership.

Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will go to polls later this year and here too, BJP is expected to have a clean sweep; that would just go to reiterate the fact that BJP, nay, Modi, rules India.

We could see a more confident and decisive leadership and GST is a sure shot yes. Land reforms might remain contentious but with Modi getting reinvigorated with this win, who knows, he might decide to revisit this too! Infra push, some loan waivers, bolder reforms – amendment of Labour laws and factories laws; increased participation of women in labour force, implementation of Benami Law, making Aadhaar the identity for all reform processes; we could see it all.

Modi might take more political risks now with bolder decisions but at the moment, he can afford to do so. If he could pull off 8^th November and still win the way he did in UP, well, Modi can pretty much get away with anything!