AGRICULTURE LAND - APPETITE TO ONLY GROW

By Ruma Dubey

Do you know where the next boom is headed and a boom which will never ever taper off? The food industry. Not processed food but the primary source of all food – agriculture. And China, as usual is buying up as much agricultural land as it can and its target is Australia.

With a cool off in commodities like copper, iron ore and coal, the main fray of Australia, the Chinese having made substantial investment in these sectors in Australia are now looking at greener pastures. A report put out by KPMG suggests that Chinese companies are showing an increasing appetite for investing in Australia’s food sector, basically “from gate to plate”. The logic being that food demand will only go up in China and it can make food supply secure and also gain expertise from Australia’s companies and farmers. Banks are eager to fund these Chinese acquisitions as mining and energy projects are finding it tough to get financing for their projects. Food is one sector which will always have a linear if not vertical growth; there being no chance of demand falling.

This makes perfect business sense too as on one hand while metal prices are cooling off, food prices are spiking up with weather becoming more and more unpredictable thereby increasing chances of shortfall. Moreover, the United Nations has stated in one of its reports that production of food grains will need to increase by 70% by 2050 to meet the increasing demand. And that means only one thing- food prices over the years will only continue to rise.

Well, if you have the money to spare and are itching to deploy some of it in real estate, forget luxury homes or even affordable homes, the best bet is undoubtedly agriculture land.

For those with a horizon of 10 years, surely having land which tills rice, wheat or grains and pulses is the best bet. With growing population and adverse weather conditions, it is food which will become dearer. Be it coffee, wheat, rubber, grains and pulses, the need will become to produce more as shortages are bound to crop up.

Macquarie has infact put out a report stating that it is bullish on agriculture commodities but it is putting maximum bets on corn as a combination of strong feed demand growth in Asia and record US ethanol production is outstripping the world`s current corn production capacity. And it is not just Macquarie, even Barclays has put out a report stating that crude oil and grains will be the top commodity performers this year as investors bet on supply disruptions.

Monsoon rains were over 15% below average in mid-August, and Asian rice prices are forecast to rise by as much as 10% in the coming months as supplies tighten. Not just in India, but a more severe drought has hit USA, the worst since 1950s. 48 states have been affected and maize production is at its lowest level in six years and corn and soya bean prices are expected to hit the roof.

Agflation, the new word of the 21st century, denoting inflation led by rises in agricultural commodity prices, seems to be here to stay. RBI can go on holding on to the rates, but if this is the trend predicted for this year, surely food prices are not going to come down in a hurry.

Just as we have accepted the unseasonal rains, extreme heat and cold weathers as part of this new world, we also have to accept that weather disruptions are here to stay and will affect agricultural production. Rains and floods, drought and snow are no longer one-off events. They have become routine. Hence under the current scenario, with growing consumption, every bit of logic points out to food prices only gaining.

Makes sense to buy agriculture land for the future?

Venezuela – piquant situation

Venezuela is the fifth largest oil exporting country in the world with the largest reserves of heavy crude oil at an estimated 99.4 billion barrels. Naturally, one expects the country to be extremely rich and prosperous. But on the contrary, lopsided growth, leading to an increasing gap between the rich and poor has led to weird socialist policies which forces people to stand in queues for even the basic groceries.

Shortages of staples like milk, meat and pulses are a chronic part of Venezuelan life and many residents arrange their calendars around the once-a-week deliveries made to government-subsidized stores. People stand in long serpentine lines outside such shops before to buy something as basic as one piece of meat or cooking oil or milk, before the stock runs out. The rich, in the posh supermarkets might get meat and eggs in abundance one day only to find no coffee or cheese.

Why this strange situation. It has apparently been created by their President Hugo Chavez who imposed strict price controls to make food affordable for all. Companies hold on to the products, creating a shortage as they simply cannot afford to sell products at the low set prices. Thus it has led to a situation wherein farmers grow less food, manufacturers cut back production and retailers stock less inventory. Also, the Govt has seized companies in sectors of dairy and coffee and running it to ‘protect national interest’. Incidentally, Venezuela had, last year one of the highest inflations in the world – 27.6%. A fine example of how a Govt can ruin a perfectly good and prosperous country.