about 11 months ago
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Elections in USA are over and as expected, Trump promises to make it ugly and create more uncertainty if Biden wins.

Even before the results from the main “swing” states were out, he declared himself a winner and said that the he will ask the Supreme Court to intervene, calling it, “a fraud on American public.” He called for “all voting to stop” which is meaningless because the states were counting legally cast votes, which again is routine on election day.

As of now, Biden has won 227 seats and Trump has won 213. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are the crucial votes that need to be counted. The vote counting could take days and we might not know who will be at the White House for some more time.

But two points to be noted here – the fact that despite everything that Trump did and said, this is not a sweep for Biden and the fact that Trump’s lead has become better than last year means that there is a large majority of Americans who believe in his ideology and ways of leadership.

Secondly, even if Biden does win the Presidency, he might not be able to do much in terms of policy action as the Senate is Republican majority and like Obama’s second term, might not allow much to happen. The Senate will see a change after two years but then with Republican Supreme Court judges now at 6:3, anything major happening then seems unlikely.

Thus as of now, as we see it, even if Biden wins, the Republicans remain in power and if Trump wins, well, he will get further emboldened and the world could see more chaos and rightist views taking predominance.

Our Indian markets today, have moved on, probably accepting ‘either-or’ but an end to this political uncertainty will help calm and allow Indian and world markets to focus on real events.

PS: Starting today, USA is out of the Paris Climate Agreement. Its not a treaty as such but an agreement to bring down carbon emissions. Of the 195 countries, 189 are part of this Agreement. USA now joins with the other naysayers - Angola, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, South Sudan, Turkey and Yemen. It does not mean that the USA has abandoned climate change but just that the US Govt is not a part of this accord.

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