DURGA, RAM, SANTA - ALL TO THE RESCUE

Surveys give us a good inkling into the ground realities. And looks like things are indeed looking optimistic and poised to go up only if the Covid situation manages to remain benign the way it is currently.

Here is a sample of a few surveys:

Aon’s survey of the Indian IT sector – an average industry-wide pay hike of over 11% in 2022, while ITeS at 9% and those at star-ups might almost double over industry average. It expects e-commerce pay hikes also to be in the double-digits.

Deloitte’s Workforce and Increments Survey - average IT sector hikes at 10%, the highest for any sector in the economy, followed closely by e-commerce and financial services.

Quarterly Employment Survey by Ministry of Labour - an increase of 29% in employment across nine major non-farm sectors of the economy since 2014 (previous year’s don’t matter as per the Survey). IT and BPO were the biggest job creators, followed by healthcare and transport.

Redseer Consulting – expects online e-commerce firms to see a surge in sales of over 23% (YoY), with overall sales expected to cross $9 billion in value. Consumer durables firms, which log a third of their annual sales over these three months, expect to see at least a 20% increase in sales.

Well, on one hand we see employment picking up slowly but surely and on the other, we will see pay hikes and consumer spending is also expected to go up.

This indicates that the economy and the overall sentiments are indeed on the upswing. This quarter, Q3FY22 will be the make-it-or-break-it for many sectors as maximum festive buying – be it gold, realty, consumer durables, automobiles – most of the heavy ticket items, see a surge. We are now at the peak of it all – Navratri and Dusserah, giving way to Diwali soon and then Christmas. Of course, there is also the Big Fat Indian wedding season, which many say could see a huge surge as there is simply too much pent-up demand in the system.

The more people spend, the more money will come into the system and the better it gets for the overall economy. Private consumption might finally take-off after a prolonged slack period. And along with this, if the tax collection momentum and proposed divestments also take off, it will become a truly festive FY22.

Of course, as we say time and again, it all depends on how the corona situation pans out. We all have learned to live with the virus in our midst but if the third wave does happen, this “happy” story takes a sad turn.  

Let’s hope and pray that this Dusserah, we burn the Raavan of corona with the arrow of vaccination…