EXIT POLLS - COMPLETE EXIT OF OPPOSITION

about 7 months ago
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Oh wow!!! That’s all one could say on this unanimous decision coming from almost all the Exit Polls across the country. The verdict of the Exit Polls was much better than what one expected – the BJP on its own itself is coming back with a big bang unless what most analysts had expected. And when in combination with NDA, the Opposition stands completely decimated.

The market gave this a HUGE thumbs up. The Sensex surged up like a huge wave, almost 1000 points. NDTV has itself given a thumping result – as per its Exit Poll, BJP on its own is expected to garner 302 seats. Today’s Chanakya says its at 350 and India Today left everyone completely bewildered with its verdict of 339 to 365 seats for BJP. ABP, Times now, Republic TV, News18, News Nation, NewsX and Sudarshan News predicted a return of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Most of the brokerages and analysts are happy because the Exit Polls show a completely decisive verdict – no hotpotch, Mahagathbandhan. Once the results are out, we could more of this rally but keep in mind, some of the victory has already been discounted today. The overhang of uncertainty is gone and that’s probably the biggest positive. With elections out of the way, the new Govt can now concentrate back on reforms and policy action required. With growth slowing down, we can look forward to the much needed impetus. And with a stable govt in place, the consumption story could get revived. All the action is expected to be seen in the midcap as they have widely remained on the fence with large caps looking more and more overvalued.

Having said all this and the mood being as jubilant as it is today, even at the cost of being looked at as a party pooper, exercise caution. Prior to 2014, the methods of prediction were not as specialized as they are today. But the Exit Polls of 2014, overall was able to predict the broad trend  but in terms of seats, the estimates were all over the place. As expected, NDA did win but what took everyone by surprise, which almost no Exit Poll had predicted was the clear majority for the BJP.

This time too, the Exit Polls do predict a clear cut victory for BJP – so that is a given. What needs to be seen is by how many seats.

Exit Polls are not the actual results – it is an indication of what to expect. But wait for the 23rd – that’s the real picture.

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