HAPPY AND PROFITABLE 2013!
So the world did not end in 2012 and we all live to tell this tale! As 2012 hobbled its way to the exit door, one could not wait to see the back of this year and a push and shove, if possible was a good idea! Corruption scandals dominated the political landscape 2010 and 2011 and it was corruption and politicians again in 2012. As the year closed and a swanky New Year was ushered in with new hope, a quick look back at the year that was. Its back to basics - an A,B,C,D... of 2012.
By Ruma Dubey
A – Arvind Kejriwal stole the limelight with his Aam Aadmi Party and though he continued to expose the nexus between India Inc and politicians, constant expose’s and ‘breaking news’ lost steam. Hope 2013 will see him in a stronger position.
B – Barclays and its ex-CEO, Bob Diamond who quit after a self-confessing letter which exposed that the bank was manipulating Libor rates, the base rate for transactions all around the world.
C – After a long time, one Govt agency has shown its teeth – the Competition Commission of India (CCI). And it came as a pleasant surprise for many (those not affiliated to the stock markets) to see that companies can actually be penalized for cartelization. It slapped a fine of Rs.6000 crore on the top cement companies.
Cable TV digitization Bill was passed and was implemented in phases, to be completed by December 2014. This is certainly a moment of triumph for broadcasters who had been lobbying with the government to allow the cable industry to convert from analog to digital.
D – Direct access was given to individual FIIs to invest in the stock markets from January 15, 2012 instead of using indirect routes like mutual funds or through institutional vehicles.
E – Emkay Global triggered a flash strike on the NSE after it placed large amount of erroneous orders, raising concerns about the stability of trading systems. Trading was briefly halted after 59 trades worth more than $125 million were placed, triggering a sudden drop of more than 900 points on Nifty index.
F –FDI in retail was a huge buzz word during the year. Huge expectation built up over 51% FDI in mutli brand and 100% in single brand. And the Govt managed to push it through; lets see how this FDI pans out in 2013.
G –GMR with its debacle with the Maldives Govt. This case highlighted the fragility of doing business abroad, especially when politically things are fragile.
H –Housing sector has never been so bad. The rising interest rate sapped out whatever little demand was there. But with interest cycle expected to start coming down in 2013, maybe the outlook for the sector will look up in this year.
I –Inflation, especially food inflation remained worrisome through the year but it was better than 2012. WPI for Nov 2012 was at 10-month low at 7.24% v/s 9.46% (YoY). Food inflation was at 8.5%.
IIP in October at 8.2% came in at a 16-month high and this spread a feeling of general optimism though this rise was mainly on account of Diwali demand. Based on these Oct numbers alone, it would be naïve to rework the IIP for the fiscal. One needs to wait and see the Nov numbers and only then will we get a clear picture.
J – Jantar Mantar at Delhi has become THE PLACE for all protests and agitations. Starting with Anna last year, this year the place remained in news with protestors choosing to spend their New Year there, sending a message to the Indian Govt to act fast against the six rapists and murderers.
K – Kingfisher Airlines is literally on its death bed and this is probably one year which Vijay Mallya would want to forget in a hurry. KFA still remains grounded and there is speculation that maybe Etihad will pick up stake and rescue the airline. Its woes continue and so do that of its retail shareholders and employees.
L –Lok Sabha worked overtime, literally! Apart from FDI in retail, it passed the path breaking Banking License (Amendment) Bill 2011, paving the way for foreign investments in the sector and establishment of new private banks. It also the Companies Bill 2011, which makes CSR mandatory for most listed companies amongst other statutes.
M – Last year too, Maruti had labour issues and this year, its Manesar plant strike turned violent, the worst probably seen by India Inc. Though things have come back to normalcy, the management remains clueless as to why the violence happened.
N –Narendra Modi was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Gujarat for the fourth time, third time in a row. His hat-trick now puts him right in the forefront as the Prime Ministerial candidate for BJP in 2014 forthcoming elections.
O –Olympics was hosted by UK, London and the show was a spectacular success, helping boost demand and growth for the fledgling economy. More than economic success, the infra build was worth all the effort and money.
P –Pranab Mukherjee’s long political journey culminated as when he rightly became the President of India. His tenure as Finance Minister was nothing great to write home about but at least, he vacated the spot and Chidambaram came in.
Q –Q2FY12 numbers were not very good but it probably has hit the bottom and hopefully, it cannot sink down further. Sectors which did well were auto, realty, FMCG, cement, pharma though the biggest disappointment was Infosys.
R – Rajat Gupta, ex-chief of McKinsey, was convicted for insider trading. He was part of the Berkshire meetings for big deals and gave heads-up news to Galleon group chairman, Raja Rajaratnam. He was sentenced to 2 years imprisonment but has been granted the motion to stay his surrender date and remain free on bond of $10 million.
S – Subbarao, Governor of RBI. He is one of the few Govt bureaucrats we have today who has not bowed down to political pressure and decided to stick to his guns, to his hawk eyed view on inflation. He comes forth as a person who is idealistic and we should be happy that we have today one person in India who stood by his conviction.
T – Telecom sector troubles continued with Supreme Court canceling more than 100 telecom licenses issued in 2008 to mobile phone operators. In November, the government tried to auction the 2G licenses but could not sell all of them.
U – USA elections. The way in which it was held, the debates all showed a lot of maturity of the largest developed country of the world. Re-election of Barrack Obama was celebrated world over, a true ‘global’ leader.
V – Vodafone wins a $2.2-billion legal battle against the tax department in a Supreme Court ruling. This has soothed the ruffled feathers of foreign direct investors and cleared the way for the company's planned IPO in India.
W – Woes on the rating front when Standard & Poor's cut India's credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing concerns on fiscal deficit and political paralysis. This jeopardized India's long-term rating of BBB-, the lowest investment grade rating.
X – Xi Jinping, the new President of China takes charge. 2013 will show whether he will give India the due importance it deserves in the region or will he, like his predecessor, Mr.Hu, get more aligned with Pakistan? Mr.Xi is stated to be the man behind the idea of a separate Kashmir and started the practice of issuing stapled visa to people from Kashmir and even Arunachal Pradesh. Geopolitics apart, overall, on the economic front, Xi is expected to maintain continuity of Mr.Hu and at least on that front, India does not expect any impact.
Y – Young women of India, especially from Delhi, protested for more stringent rape laws and showed to the world and Indian politicians, that given the right cause, the ‘internet’ generation is very much alive and kicking. Kudos to Youngistan!
Z – Zee News and its editors being exposed in a ‘reverse sting’ operation by Naveen Jindal exposing the dangerous nexus between the media houses and corporates. ‘Pay and get the news coverage of your choice’ is the mantra and it is not as though this is a new revelation; it has existed for years but only now, it seems to have got out of bounds and cover too!