NOT A WAVE, IT MIGHT BE A 'MODI TSUNAMI'!
By Ruma Dubey
There is no Congress. That in short is the first verdict of the majority of the Exit Polls.
The Modi wave is surely hitting Indian shores and it promises to be a tsunami, not a small blip. Most Exit Polls, BJP led NDA is expected to lead with 230-249 seats. In fact CNN-IBN has gone ballistic, stating that NDA will get 270-282, BJP on its own would win 230-242, UPA will get between 92-102 and Congress could report the worst ever performance with less than 75 seats.
AAP will largely disappoint. Mamata seems to be retaining her supremacy in West Bengal and so will Amma with her AIADMK. Maharashtra is expected to see a BJP+Shiv Sena rule with Congress decimated; all dreams of Sharad Pawar might get shattered though being the big politician that he is, anything could happen there behind the scenes.. In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which were essentially Congress bastions in 2009, is expected to be done away with; BJP expected to lead here too.
BJP is expected to sweep the biggest state – UP, the prize cat with SP expected to get just around 12-13 seats. Delhi is also expected to be totally taken over by BJP. It is only in Kerala, Karnataka and Assam where Congress could lead.
We are expected to see a climax finish with Jagan Reddy and TRS. In Gujarat; no exit polls required here; BJP to sweep.
All this ties up with our much appreciated Cover Feature by Abhinandan Tulsian; in fact his analysis was spot on and we expect the actual numbers on 16th to also come around the same levels (https://www.sptulsian.com/article/79737).
One sure shot thing which we can now expect – Narendra Modi in all likelihood will become the new Prime Minister of India.
Another good news which we have got is that the Lok Sabha Election this time around saw the highest voter turnaround at 66.38% v/s 58.19% in 2009. The voters came out in throngs and have surpassed the previous record of 64.01% in 1984 when Indira Gandhi was assassinated.
So the Exit Polls tell us what we already knew – the Modi wave was very real and has taken over the country, destroying the Congress and the dynasty politics in its wake. But what we now need to wait for on 16th May – will NDA get the absolute majority with over 272 to 280 seats? It would also be extremely interesting to see who wins in Amethi and Varanasi.
The markets till 16th May, will amble around the same levels as one can react only this much to Exit Polls. Friday will be the game changer. But rememeber, the market is now expecting an NDA majority, a win of over 272; if that falls short, we could see disappointment. Thus currently, expectations are running sky high and one would be prudent to book partial profits at every surge.
Stocks to watch out for? Now that Modi win is certain, look at the entire Adani group, Gujarat Narmada, Guj State Petronet, Guj Alkali, Welspun India, Guj Apollo, Arvind Mills, Nirma, Gujarat Gas, Aarvee Denim, Torrent Power, Torrent Cables, Cadilla Helthcare, Dishman Pharma, United Phosphorous, Alembic Pharma, Atul Auto – all are Gujarat based companies.
And with Jagan Reddy also expected to win – ‘his’ stocks would be - Ramky Infra, Aurobindo Pharma, India Cement and Nava Bharat Ventures.
Other stocks which are expected to get some ‘collateral advantage’ are L&T, LIC Housing Finance, Jaiprakash Associates, ICICI Bank, IDFC, Tata Power and other energy and ancillary companies. On the other hand, stay away from DLF and Unitech as 'Vadra' stocks could get buchered when Modi comes to power.
PS: The market will largely ignore the dismal second straight month fall in IIP for March and CPI for April has hit a 3-month high. Well, all this is what the market, very unrealistically hoping that Modi will reverse in a jiffy.