RIL 40TH AGM - JIO AND MORE JIO

By Ruma Dubey

The market dismissed the 40th AGM of RIL within a few seconds of its conclusion.  That is the world we live in today – everything is instant and pops like a fire cracker – bright one moment, agog with expectations and fizzled out within minutes.

When Mr.Mukesh Ambani began his speech, he began reminiscing about the company having completed over 37 years on the bourses when it got listed in 1977. RIL till today remains the market mover and shaker.

And while down the memory lane, a few fortunate who had attended the RIL’s AGM when chaired by the legendary Mr.Dhirubhai Ambani, rue at the small, non-event it has become today.  Rajeshbhai, 65 years old, after today's AGM clicked his tongue and wistfully said that those were the days. He recounted, saying, “It was a record, Dhirubhai had booked a stadium in 1985 for the AGM, then Bombay, at Cooperage Football Ground. It was the first AGM ever held in the open. A canvas awning was put over the ground and there were around 12,000 shareholders, including me. I knew history was being made. It was an event which got covered even in London’s Financial Times!”

There was no stopping Rajeshbhai. He continued, “I vividly remember Dhirubhai walking onto the podium to speak. There was a roar of applause as though people were greeting some rock star. He was wearing a suit but soon, as his speech progressed and he got animated, he removed his suit and continued speaking in his shirt. His speech used to be liberally interspersed with Gujarati, or sometimes mainly in Gujarati and he had a way of connecting with people like me and you. We felt he was part of us and believed that nothing, no dream is impossible. That was the AGM where the name and symbol was changed from Reliance Textiles to Reliance Industries. It was like a carnival, where food packets were distributed! I am forever indebted to RIL as its shares helped fund my daughter’s marriage.”

Yes, like Rajeshbhai, there are thousands of investors who have built their life thanks to RIL shares. And as Mr.Mukesh Ambani said previously, those who had invested Rs.1000 in 1977 have seen their wealth growth to over Rs.7 lakh in these 37 years.

Well, that was then and this is now. Neither will those days come back nor will the AGM have the magic of Dhirubhai. RIL has built on the legacy left behind and we now look at a new dimension of the company emerging.

And if today the AGM was a non-event it was essentially because of this change in psyche. People like Rajeshbhai do not see the magic of leaders like Dhirubhai and the new generation, on number crunching, does not see much in the immediate future. And it was a non-event because apart from forward looking statements, there was really nothing much.

There was major disappointment as he did not really say much, not on facts which needed clarifications. A quick look at what he said and what he did not…

What he said….

• Will be investing Rs.1.80 lakh crore over next 3 years which will be transformational
• Will see benefits of investments in 2016-17
• Company has been largest asset creator in India over past 20 years
• Highlight of RIL’s performance – retail and shale gas have been significant contributors
• Investing in consumer-facing business like Retail and Communication
• Company remains highest tax payer accounting for 4.7% of total India’s total indirect taxes.
• Reliance contributed 14.7% to total exports from India; achieved highest export revenue in FY14
• Petrochemical will be biggest beneficiary of this new investment capex – all new petchem projects to be completed within the next 24 months
• Processed more than 68 mt of crude last fiscal; continue to remain largest refiner in India
• FY15 and FY16 to focus on retail, communication and petchem
• Jamnagar will be the area of focus for next 18 months, will be largest construction site in India
• Coal bed methane gas production to start from FY16
• Added 367 new stores in Reliance Retail in FY14 – one store per day
• Field trials for Reliance Jio will start from August 2014; will see phased launch across India in 2015
• Nita Ambani was duly recognized for her contribution to Reliance Foundation and was welcomed to the Board of RIL
• Reliance Jio will propel company to list amongst the Fortune 50

Takers from these – communication is a cash guzzler – already Rs.70,000 crore has been poured into this but we still do not have any clarity on how the earnings are expected to pan out. This increases a sense of nervousness. Undoubtedly, Jio will be a game changer but surely the initial years could see some teething troubles. So its area of focus remains - retail, shale gas and 4G.  And last but not the least, the company plans to invest Rs.1.80 lakh crore over the next three years in India; that’s a huge amount of money and good for the country. Also good is the fact that it is creating huge employment opportunities; the most needed resource for India’s youth.  All in all, the AGM did not say anything new which we already did not know, except maybe that we could see Jio getting launched in phased manner across India in 2015.

What he did not say….

• No specific direction of Reliance Jio, in terms of how this Rs.70,000 crore would pay off in the immediate future. There was absolutely no word on the earning potentials.
• No commentary on gas prices, gas production timeline and output from KG D6 and other fields.
• The Govt is expected to finalise gas price, tentatively by 1^st July.  But at the AGM there was no mention on neither this nor on the possibility of re-working of the gas price calculation.
• There was no indication on the refining margins outlook
• The big time buying into TV18 and Network 18 attracted attention but in the AGM, there was no indication on how this digital media will be integrated with Reliance Jio.