RIL Q3FY12 ESTIMATES
RIL Q3 FY12 ESTIMATES
By SP Tulsian
Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) will declare its Q3FY12 (quarter ended 31st December 2011) results on 20th January, 2012. Our estimates are as under:
| Particulars | Q3 ending 31-12-11 | Year end 31-03-11 |
| Segment Revenue | | |
| 1) Petrochem | 21,200 | 63,155 |
| 2) Refinery | 64,600 | 215,431 |
| 3) Oil & Gas | 3,850 | 17,250 |
| 4) Others | 500 | 615 |
| Gross Turnover | 90,150 | 296,451 |
| Less: Inter Segment | 11,250 | 37,800 |
| | 78,900 | 258,651 |
| Less: Excise Duty | 2,130 | 10,481 |
| Net Turnover | 76,770 | 248,170 |
| | | |
| EBIT Margins | | - |
| 1) Petrochem (11.20%)* | 2,375 | 9,305 |
| 2) Refinery (3.60%)* | 2,325 | 9,172 |
| 3) Oil & Gas (42.50%)* | 1,635 | 6,700 |
| 4) Others | 10 | 33 |
| PBIT | 6,345 | 25,210 |
| Less: Interest Expenses | (690) | (2,328) |
| Adds: Other Unallocated Income | 40 | (261) |
| Add: Interest Income | 960 | 2,621 |
| PBT | 6,655 | 25,242 |
| Less: Provision for Tax @20% | (1,330) | (4,320) |
| Less: Provision for Def. Tax | (150) | (636) |
| Profit After Tax | 5,175 | 20,286 |
| EPS | 15.80 | 62.00 |
(Amount in Rupees crore)
*Figures in brackets indicates % margin for Q3FY12
Notes:
1. GRM for December 2011 quarter is estimated at $6.80 per barrel.
2. Advance Tax paid by the company for FY 12 –
| Instalment date | Amount in Rs. crore |
| On 15-06-11 | 900 |
| On 15-09-11 | 1,900 |
| On 15-12-11 | 1,002 |
| Total | 3,802 |
3. Debt of the company is estimated at Rs. 76,400 crores on standalone basis and at Rs. 94,000 crores on consolidated basis, as at 31-12-11
4. Cash with the company will be at around Rs. 84,000 crores, as at 31-12-11. This includes:-
| Particulars | Amount in Rs. crore |
| Cash and cash equivalents as on 30-09-11 | 61,490 |
| Add: BP deal (last installment realised on 03-10-11) | 14,690 |
| Add: Q3 PAT | 5,000 |
| Add: Depreciation and Def. Tax for Q3 | 3,100 |
| Less: Q3 capex | (1,780) |
| Cash and cash equivalents as on 30-09-11 | 82,500 |
5. Oil & Gas production is estimated as under: -
i) KG – D6
a) 112 BCF of natural gas at an average of 41 mmscmd.
b) 1.20 million barrels of crude oil.
ii) Panna Mukta
16 BCF of gas and 2.4 million barrels of crude oil.
iii) Tapti
17.50 BCF of natural gas and 2.40 lakh barrels of crude oil.
6. Net worth as at 31-03-11 –
i) Equity Capital Rs. 3,273 cr.
ii) Free Reserves Rs. 1,42,800 cr.
Total Rs. 1,46,073 cr.
a) Revaluation Reserves of Rs. 5,467 cr. as at 31-03-11 is excluded from Reserves & Surplus.
b) Maximum permissible buy back –
i) Rs. 14,607 cr. being 10% of Net Worth, subject to Board approval.
ii) Rs. 36,517 cr. being 25% of Net Worth, subject to Shareholder approval
7. Company is likely to earmark Rs. 12,000 cr. to Rs. 14,500 cr. for share buy back, in a price band of Rs. 850 to Rs. 900 per share.
8. Buy back is likely to be open market purchase and is likely to be at not exceeding Rs. 900 per share.
9. Company will have to mandatory spent 25% of amount indicated/ earmarked, on Share buy-back, under new SEBI guidelines.
10. As at 31-12-11, Prom. Stake is at 44.71%, which includes 3.68% stake, being 12.05 cr. shares held by Petroleum Trust, Beneficiary Reliance Industrial Investments And Holdings Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the company.
11. Reliance Chemicals Ltd. (6.22 cr. Shares) and Reliance Polyolefins Ltd. (6.12 cr. Shares) are held by 2 wholly owned subsidiaries of RIL, included in Public category.