THE REASONS ARE SOOOO MANY……

about 8 months ago
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Oh the reasons are so many!!!

For every falling and rising market, the justifications are so ready-to-use and completely spot on. When we read/hear the reason, we wonder why we never thought about it ourselves when it was so on-the-face, right there.

So what is moving the markets now?

FIIs buying in truckloads

Political stability foreseen

Money pouring into emerging market due to falling US Treasury yields

Better-than-expected earnings

OPEC to raise output to counter curbs on Iran imports

RBI is more dovish

Data showing that US economy outperforming the rest of the developed world

 

And when it falls? What are the reasons?

Rising crude oil prices

Dollar surging to around two-year highs, rupee getting butchered

BJP winning but not with same majority of last time

RBI is more hawkish

Data indicates that US economy is not growing as fast as expected

Earnings of some sectors disappoint

 

 

As we can see, reasons are almost different side of the same coin. When a layman asks, “So why was the market up today?” one has to think and come up with a really good reason. USA has once again become the de facto, all-round reason; it is like a one-size fits all kind of thing to explain up or down markets.  

And apart from USA too, as listed above, aahh, the reasons are so many! The markets are so volatile, it has become a joke to actually look out for reasons as to why the market is falling or rising.

The realty sector is down and beaten up. There are various reports put out, most recent one being from Moody’s which said, “India's largest property developers will continue to face a challenging operating environment -- including weak cash flows, flat sales and stagnant prices." The stock were beaten down. There is a joke going around on the social network that the markets move up and down based on the political rhetorics.

So is today’s rise the correction of a bear market or yesterday was a bottom out? Now that is like asking will the Congress allow the Parliament to function or not? Somewhere at the bottom of your heart, based purely on fundamentals, it is apparent that this could neither be the end of the bear market nor could yesterday have been the bottom. Till China gets back on its feet, we get over and done with the election, the economy  shows green shoots and our benign inflation remains low despite crude and poor monsoon, be assured - we will be left looking for reasons, both for a rise as well as for a fall.

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