UKRAINE CRISIS - WILL IT BE SPLIT WIDE OPEN?

By Ruma Dubey

War drums are beating in Ukraine and Russia has added drama to what has essentially been an internal strife. This battle within Ukraine, which has seen so much bloodshed is now a bigger battle, turning it into a Russia v/s the West kind of war.

We living so far away from Ukraine, in India are unable to even fathom the reasons for the unrest in that region. For the uninitiated – unrest began in Nov’13 which Ukraine’s President, Yanukovych rejected an accord with the European Union, which would have benefitted more in Ukraine in favor of a short sighted deal with Russia.  After abandoning EU Association Agreement, Yanukovych made a deal with Russia’s Putin, wherein Putin offered “an economic lifeline” to Ukraine in the form of $15 billion loans and cheaper gas supplies. Thus while Ukrainians were hoping to see their President take steps to integrate the country with Europe; all dreams of development and progress was ditched was ditched for a deal with Russia.  This was viewed by Ukrainians as Moscow buying off Yanukovych.

Naturally, people were enraged and since then, we have witnessed the country bring torn into shreds with violent protests, demonstrations, abductions and beatings of opposition activists. More than the disappointment about not becoming a part of Europe, it had now become more about ousting Yanukovych, who was seen as a power hungry politician, subservient to Moscow, compromising on national interests to serve his own.

In the elections in 2014, Yanukovych was removed from power; he claims he remains the President and was ousted through a coup. After the bloody protests on 20^th Feb, the next day, Yanokovych fled to Crimea, a peninsula of Ukraine located on the northern coast of the Black Sea and then into Southern Russia. On 28^th Feb, Yanokovych held a Press Conference in Russian city of Rostov-on-the-Don and on 1^st March, the Ukranian Navy refused to take orders from Kiev (capital of Ukraine) and raised the Russian flag, which was in tune with Yanokovych’s orders.

Today, Crimea , which was gifted to Ukraine by a Soviet leader 60 years ago, is at the epicenter of this tension and one cannot help but draw similarities to Kashmir. On 1^st March, pro-Russian separatists, wearing military uniforms without insignias, seized government buildings, airports and communication hubs in the region.  Then Russian troops were put on alert to “protect their citizens” in the area.  Crimea’s new Prime Minister, who is a Russian citizen, appealed for Russia’s help.  Putin desperately wants Crimea back as it is strategically located – on the southwestern tip of Crimea lay Russia’s naval base, Sevastopol, which is Russia’s primary means of extending force through the Mediterranean.  Many say that this was the base used by Putin to supply arms and other utilities to Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Putting it simply, Putin needs control on Crimea Russia to flex global military power. And Crimea is necessarily a part of Ukraine and though there are some who support Russia, majority, especially the Tartars do not want to be a part of Russia.

It is unthinkable that in the time and age which we live in , there could be invasions like in the past. But essentially mechanics and politics of war remains the same. Today Putin is on the verge of taking over Crimea and truly speaking, there is very little which USA or NATO can do.

So if Russia does take over Crimea, the only way the West can react is by way of issuing economic and trade sanctions, something which Russia can ill afford today. USA meanwhile is trying to hold talks with Georgia, promising support for creating closer ties and fulfill its aspirations of full NATO membership. Russia has a very old, weak military and if Georgia gets equipped with modern warfare, Russian security could some under serious threat. Putin might get Crimea but he will lose rest of Ukraine, which in turn might rush to integrate into the EU.  If Putin rushes into this, it would seriously cripple Russian economy and put its entire population at risk. Europe cannot risk isolating Russia as it provides approximately half of the natural gas consumed in the EU and this gas comes from Ukraine, which hosts a network of Soviet-era pipelines. Thus if Russia ends contracts to supply Ukraine, it may have a knock-on impact on European supplies and that is the risk in the long run. Currently, European stockpiles are higher than normal, so the worsening relationship between Russia and Ukraine has not yet had a dramatic impact on EU gas prices. Those in EU say that if push comes to a shove, EU can turn to other suppliers in Algeria and Norway or else increase imports of liquefied natural gas on tankers.

Where does all this place India? This crisis is essentially a face-off between Russia and America and we should not put out foot in the mouth by taking sides at this juncture. It was largely anticipated that China might support Russia but it has smartly put out a statement saying, “"We condemn the recent extreme violent behaviour in Ukraine, and continue to urge all sides in Ukraine to peacefully resolve their disputes within a legal framework, and conscientiously protect the legal rights all the peoples of Ukraine."  India would do well to merely cut-paste the same statement.

So how will all this turmoil in Ukraine affect me and you?  Well, directly because of crude oil. Given the tensions, today, Sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at $103.78 a barrel and April Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $1.62 to $110.69 a barrel. Thus direct repercussions for us would be higher fuel prices.

Though one cannot confidently say how this pendulum will swing, it looks like America will try to resolve this crisis diplomatically and Putin will wait and see the support he garners. For now, we could see a long drawn cold war, which ultimately could lead to split of Ukraine. Yes, this is a geopolitical issue of great importance but it might have just a short term effect on global markets.