WHAT HAPPENS NOW AFTER BREXIT?

By Ruma Dubey

The earthquake that was Brexit continues to send tremors; the small shake-ups continue.

The world had the weekend to ruminate and ponder upon the Brexit. The amount of news on the TV and internet and newspaper has already reached a point of ad nauseam. But the destruction is so huge that it would take a week or more for this to cease being big news, deserving the front page.

The Indian stock markets are lacklustre but thankfully, positive. It is not like a runaway three-digit jump back into the green but it is in the green – after Fridays fall, something is better than nothing!

Britain is undoubtedly pushed itself into turmoil and this will be a long, prolonged one. Currently the situation is such that there is really no one to steer the country through this storm of Brexit. Negotiations with the EU for the terms and conditions on the exit will begin only after the UK gets a new PM.

Many are confused as to what exactly will happen now; how will this exit progress ensure? Here is a quick hitchhiker’s guide to this unique, unmapped terrain.

• There is only one legal recourse set out – invoking Article 50, which will chalk out the roadmap.
• Under Article 50 all the remaining 27 countries will vote to lay down the terms of Brexit. From now on, Britain will not be a part of any decision making process in the EU.
• The Article 50 itself stipulates a two-year deadline for the process. The EU is keen to expedite the process.
• If no deal is struck through negotiations within the next two years, automatically Britain will stop being a EU member and this means, it will become a trading member like the rest of the world, on the usual WTO rules.
• The British are not happy with this process and have asked for a new one – parliamentary vote to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. But this will a unilateral decision thus illegal and unacceptable under European law. This means Article 50 is the only recourse.
• The new leader in UK, which is to elected by late September will invoke the Article 50; he will decide when to invoke it.
• After invoking Article 50, negotiations for Britain’s new trade relationship with EU will begin. All new trade agreements will have to be approved by the 27 members and ratified by their respective parliaments and the European Parliament. This in itself indicates how long drawn this could process can be.

So as one can see, this divorce settlement will be long drawn and painful like all separations. Many economists say that two year is too short a time; this could take years. It is sad to see that those who voted to “Leave” had no action plan in place for the emerging scenario, putting the entire country into chaos. Scotland wants to leave the UK – that is another chaos to deal with.

Clearly for us Indians, for now, Brexit is over. We get one positive trigger from within and it will be forgotten too!