PRANABDA FOR PRESIDENT. SO WHO WILL BE THE NEW FM?

By Ruma Dubey

For the stock markets, the ongoing high drama for the Presidential elections, played out to the hilt, on the verge of complete nausea by all national TV channels, holds no real significance. For the markets, a President does not change anything and hence marketmen know that this is all about politics.

There was literally a countdown to Congress announcing its all-important name for the Presidential position. And it came as no surprise –Pranab Mukherjee. It was such an anti-climax that it seemed like a drama which was fully created by the media.

The market was nonchalant about the entire thing, a non-event. And the only thing which could cause some worries to the market, actually, two things, – firstly, if this topples the UPA and a bugle is sounded for midterm polls. And secondly, with Pranab Mukherjee expected to step down as Finance Minister on June 24th after the Prime Minister comes back from the G0 meet, the big question is - who will be the new FM?

There are quite a few names which are already doing the rounds. Here goes…

1: Dr.Manmohan Singh will hold the Finance Ministry portfolio till they find a new FM.

This would somehow bring in a feeling of dejavu – with the current economic scenario being compared with the 1191 situation, it was Manmohan Singh who saved the country then and today, if he becomes FM again, will turn savior again? Unlikely as then, in 1991 he was a pure economist but today, in 2012, he is a politician. So he bringing about any sweeping changes is highly unlikely.

2: Jairam Ramesh

 He is an IIT-Bombay Chemical Engineering graduate, has a Master of Science in Public Policy and Public Management from Carnegie Mellon and another one from MIT. He more than proved his mettle when he took charge as the Minister of Environment. He created much noise, rightfully so but was shunted to Rural development. He is more than suitable for the post of FM but one does not know if the UPA will take chances with a firebrand person in charge on finance. He is pro-industry, wants to do away with fuel subsidies and wants to open up the retail sector to FDI. But his image within India Inc is more of being anti-development and that would go against him.

3: Montek Singh Ahluwalia

His name always does the rounds whenever there is need to have a financial wiz. An Oxford graduate, he is currently the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission and is said to have the ear of the Prime Minister when it comes to financial decisions. Extremely market friendly, he was in the fray for FM post in 2009 too. But off late, he seems to be suffering from foot-o-mouth-opia; shooting off the cuff and saying inane things when facts and figures point to something else, especially the recent one over the poverty line being at Rs.32.

4: C.Rangarajan

A popular figure in the world of Indian finance, this 80-year old veteran, he is currently the Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council. He was the RBI Governor from 1992 to 1997. He has a squeaky clean image and has been vocal about fuel subsidy reforms and is all for fiscal reforms. But he is more of an economist and less of a politician. Thus him becoming a vote catching candidate for UPA looks doubtful.

There are two more names doing the rounds – P.Chidambaram and current Trade Minister, Anand Sharma.

Now we have to wait and endure over the weekend, how Mamataji reacts and whether this is going to get her really raving mad! She may not withdraw support but seems to have played a wrong card. Mulayam Singh has emerged smelling of roses and this somehow changes possible equations for the UPA. Maybe there will be no mid-term polls but going forward, we could see some changes in the alliances. 

And here we thought that all eyes would be on Greece! There, it is indeed a crucial election and here, it is for an ‘ornamental’ position. Yes, a busy weekend indeed!