BPCL - A pricey pick for potential acquirer

BPCL technical bids got over, with Vedanta, being the only known and credible name having expressed interest in acquiring it. Media is seen disappointed with no names of RIL & BP Combine, Adani & Total combine, Saudi Aramco, Roseneft, Abu Dhabi seen missing. It reminds us of Hind Zinc (HZL) strategic sale in 2002, when Vedanta and AV Birla Group, only 2 bidders were there. HZL was acquired by Vedanta for less than Rs. 1,800 cr, valuing 100% of HZL then (now value of over Rs. 1 lakh crore in 18 years), while AV Birla group missed its bid marginally - like Amitabh Bachchan defeating Sanjeev Kumar in movie Trishul.

BPCL is having good assets in its ownership with-
1)    Two Refineries at Mumbai and Kochi, with a total capacity of 27.5 MMTPA
2)    Retail Outlets of 17,138 Pumps  and 6,151 LPG Dealers.
3)    22.5% equity stake in IGL and 12.5% equity stake in Petronet
4)    12.5 MMTPA Refinery in JV with 51% stake in M.P.
5)    Upstream Oil Exploration 26 assets in 9 countries in  JV, with minority stake of 10% to 15%.

BPCL paid up equity is at 197 crore shares (netting off treasury stock of 20 crore shares), while acquiring 75% stake (Govt stake of 115 cr shares and open offer of 33 cr shares) by potential acquirer, at a ballpark  price of Rs. 525 per share, would require Rs. 78,000 crore.

Petronet LNG and IGL stake can get monetized for Rs. 12K cr, while Treasury stock, being 20 crore share of BPCL  can get monetized for 8k cr. In H1FY21 BPCL had PAT of Rs. 4,777 cr. And cash profit of Rs.7,667 cr.  

Prospective Acquirer will also be given a comfort in the form of inding agreeemnt, in respect to Subsidy to be given to BPCL, if HPCL & IOC will get similar subsidy on Petrol and Diesel retail marketing, which is seen the last point of uncertainty seen coming in the way of strategic sale of BPCL.

Hence, One Lion is enough with determination, instead of having 10 herd in any acquisition. Who knows this better than Vedanta, having tasted success of acquiring HZL and BALCO in 2002.